The Rise of Streaming: A Death Knell for Premium Cable?
As the potential acquisition of Warner Bros. by Netflix looms, a crucial question arises: What's the fate of HBO Max? Will subscribers stick with both, or will it eventually merge into Netflix's realm?
Netflix has assured, for now, that HBO Max will remain independent. However, the possibility of it becoming a mere tile within Netflix's vast library is very real, much like Hulu's gradual absorption into Disney+.
But here's the intriguing part: What about the original HBO network? The trailblazer that ushered in the cable era back in 1972? The channel that redefined 'prestige TV' with 'The Sopranos' and countless other groundbreaking shows?
Even if the HBO brand survives this merger, the concept of it as a standalone entity might soon become obsolete. And with that, the era of 'premium cable' as we know it could come to a close.
Paramount has already dealt a fatal blow to the vibrant Showtime brand. First, by axing the standalone Showtime app, and then by rebranding the remaining linear channel as 'Paramount + With Showtime'. Showtime, a flagship premium network since 1976, now exists only in fragments of branding, a mere shadow of its former self.
FX, though not officially a premium network due to its basic cable presence, evolved into a 'premium' brand inspired by HBO's success. Both FX and AMC, during their 'Mad Men' and 'Breaking Bad' eras, offered creators a platform for their passion projects, changing the programming landscape. Yet, FX now exists primarily as a tile on Hulu, with its linear channel reduced to a library of movies and repeats.
Smaller premium channels like MGM+ and Starz, under Amazon's wing, maintain a linear/stream hybrid presence. However, they too prefer to be seen as digital brands, distancing themselves from their legacy TV roots.
HBO, even under Warner Bros. Discovery, has been scaling back its linear offerings. Earlier this year, the company shut down multiplex networks like HBO Family, ThrillerMax, MovieMax, and OuterMax.
With Netflix's Ted Sarandos at the helm, known for his lack of interest in linear properties, the future of HBO's linear stable looks uncertain. Netflix's bid for Warner Bros. Discovery excluded the channels being spun off by the 'Discovery' portion, indicating a lack of interest in traditional cable. How long will Netflix tolerate programming HBO linear, especially with the allure of digital streaming?
Currently, HBO linear subscribers enjoy free access to HBO Max. But will Netflix continue to allow this hybrid model? When it comes to merger cost-cutting, will Netflix view linear network infrastructure as a necessary expense or an easy cut?
The fate of premium cable, much like basic cable before it, seems sealed. HBO's primetime viewership in 2024 averaged a mere 154,000, a significant drop from previous years. As viewers migrate to streaming, the writing is on the wall.
Netflix's original programming, inspired by the HBO model, has grown exponentially. It started with high-end shows like 'House of Cards', aiming to outshine HBO. Now, Netflix has surpassed traditional broadcast networks, while HBO remains a high-end destination, mostly on HBO Max.
If Netflix acquires Warner Bros., the end of premium cable is inevitable. HBO, along with WWE, NFL, and others, would become just another brand on Netflix's expansive menu. The battle between Netflix and HBO has dominated TV discourse for over a decade. But now, Netflix might not need to compete with HBO; it could simply absorb it.
